Why optimisation is not an option:

The remarkable surge in renewable energy sources is encouraging. The IEA (International Energy Agency) recently found that the world will add more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2030. That's approaching three times the increase between 2017 and 2023.

For any business seeking to decarbonise its thermal energy processes, it might seem logical to wait until the system's electrification becomes a realistic proposition. After all, if everything is working well now, simply holding fire until the catch-all solution arrives will seem like an attractive route to take.

However, the journey towards sustainability is not as straightforward as that. All the modelling that has been done on how best to reach net zero assumes electrification and efficiency will work together to achieve that goal.

Energy efficiency takes the lead role in the US Department of Energy's Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap, as "...the most cost-effective option for greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions in the near term." That is echoed by the European Union introducing Article 3, the Energy Efficiency First Principle (EE1) as a requirement for all member countries (revised Energy Efficiency Directive (EED 2023).

You may ask why there is such a focus on efficiency, coupled with energy savings, and how it affects net zero commitments.

The simple answer is, it works.

The IEA underscores the importance of acting now where efficiency is concerned. Look at the following graph, taken from the Net Zero Roadmap, and you will see that taking energy efficiency, coupled with energy demand reduction, will have the potential to achieve at least one-quarter of the total cumulative CO2 emissions reductions. Note also that these are important both before and after 2030, whereas the majority of beneficial electrification happens after that year.

CO2 emissions reductions by mitigation measure in the NZE Scenario, 2022-2050 (IEA)

These are cumulative savings too, not a set of either/or options. Only by striving to optimise, manage, and finally, decarbonise, can we hope to reach the desired outcome of a net zero future.

Reinforcing this approach, this diagram of the six pillars needed to reach the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 clearly shows the importance of energy efficiency and conservation together with electrification. Combined, they contribute 45% to the overall reduction in GHG needed.

Source: (left) Fraunhofer ISI (right) IRENA

The pillars between the two diagrams are slightly rearranged. The left side prioritises energy conservation and efficiency, given the opportunities here are already available to exploit. Significantly, these will help improve the later impact of renewables (as capacity grows) and electrification (as the physical implications of increased electricity demand are met) by meeting sufficiency options.

There is a subtle, but important, distinction between the commonly-used "efficiency" and our emphasis on "optimisation" in the sustainability journey. Whilst the former focuses on achieving what is desired without wasting time, materials, or energy, optimisation implies the extra step of making a process as fully perfect, functional, or effective as possible. There is the added nuance of continuous improvements.

By taking this approach to thermal energy systems, they will be better positioned to take maximum advantage of the later developments in renewable energy supply and potential electrification.